^{By Lulama Lunika, Irene Laigong and Fatu Badiane}

What is ModHA?

Modelling for Health in Africa (ModHA) is an African-led network of 12 collaborative projects funded by the Gates Foundation and Wellcome. There are over 110 ModHA members spread across more than 15 countries in Africa. It consists of researchers, policymakers, implementers and funders to advance health modelling across African countries by bridging the gap between those who develop models and those who use them to make policy and public health decisions.

ModHA facilitates collaboration within this vibrant pan-African community of practice to share, strengthen and enable strategic health modelling in Africa.

Why Modelling Matters  

Health systems operate in conditions of uncertainty. Policymakers are often required to make high-stakes decisions with limited time and resources, and imperfect information. Modelling is an important tool to support such decisions by simulating scenarios, projecting outcomes, and exploring the impact of interventions before they are implemented.

Modelling helps decision-makers improve efficiency, maximise impact, and anticipate future challenges, including disease prevention strategies, health financing, workforce planning, among others. In Tanzania and South Africa, for example, one ModHA project is modelling how to better integrate HIV services with chronic care, while another in Ethiopia, is using data modelling to strengthen supply chains and workforce planning across the primary healthcare system.

Modelling does not eliminate uncertainty. But by generating data-derived scenarios, it helps decision-makers navigate health challenges and limited resources with greater confidence. It is also important to highlight that this is only possible if the underlying data and assumptions reflect the realities of the health systems it's meant to serve.

ModHA has the potential to generate outcomes that are not only scientifically rigorous but are also policy-relevant and lead to better health outcomes.

What is Limiting the Use of Modelling to Inform Decision-Making?

Several barriers stand in the way of modelling reaching its full potential in Africa: limited access to modelling expertise, fragmented efforts across institutions and countries, and too few platforms for sustained collaboration and knowledge-sharing. In many settings, there is a disconnect between modellers and decision-makers, limiting the uptake and impact of modelling outputs.

Training, mentorship and collaboration opportunities aren't always equitably distributed across the continent, leaving some countries reliant on external expertise that, by definition, can't fully capture local context. ModHA is designed to reduce this dependence by creating a collaborative space where African expertise is strengthened, connected and positioned to directly inform public health decision-making.

The Vision for ModHA

ModHA's goal is a future of evidence-informed public health decisions, supported by a connected, effective and African-led modelling ecosystem. To get there, the network has set three priorities:

• Promoting African-led solutions guided by country needs that are aligned with policy priorities
• Enhancing collaboration by connecting researchers, policymakers and partners across countries and disciplines
• Strengthening capacity by supporting training, mentorship and peer learning for African modellers and institutions

Looking Ahead

ModHA's long-term success will depend on researchers, policymakers, institutions, implementers and partners working together, and on a network that grows with the needs of its members and the health systems they serve. What will not change is its commitment to African leadership: building tools, talent and trust the continent needs to answer its hardest health questions, on its own terms.